Lionel Messi has emerged as the leading favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or following Argentina’s dramatic victory over England to secure a place in the FIFA World Cup final.
The Argentina captain strengthened his claim for football’s biggest individual prize after producing two assists in his side’s 2-1 comeback win over England. Argentina will now face Spain in Sunday’s World Cup final, giving Messi another opportunity to cement his status as the frontrunner for the prestigious award.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, Messi currently has a 31.7% chance of winning the 2026 Ballon d’Or, narrowly edging Barcelona and Spain star Lamine Yamal, who is rated at 30.9%.
England captain Harry Kane sits third in the latest projections with a 13.5% chance, despite his team’s World Cup semi-final exit. France forward Ousmane Dembélé is fourth on the list with a 3.1% probability.
The latest rankings reflect the significant impact of the FIFA World Cup on this year’s Ballon d’Or race, with standout performances on football’s biggest stage expected to influence voters ahead of the final decision.
The race, however, remains open. A strong performance in the World Cup final could dramatically reshape the standings, particularly for Messi and Yamal, who will go head-to-head if Argentina and Spain meet in Sunday’s title decider.
The winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be officially announced at the annual awards ceremony scheduled for October 26, 2026.
