The race for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is heating up as the FIFA World Cup reaches the semi-final stage, with France captain Kylian Mbappe emerging as the clear favourite to claim football’s biggest individual prize.
With France preparing to face Spain and England set to take on Argentina in the World Cup semi-finals, the performances of the remaining stars could have a major influence on who lifts the prestigious award later this year.
According to prediction market Polymarket, as shared by football journalist Fabrizio Romano, Mbappe currently leads the Ballon d’Or rankings with a 42 percent chance of winning the award. The French forward has enjoyed a sensational World Cup campaign, scoring eight goals and providing two assists to drive Les Bleus into the last four.
Argentina captain Lionel Messi sits second in the latest projections with a 30 percent chance. The veteran playmaker has once again played a crucial role in Argentina’s push for another World Cup final and remains firmly in contention for the award.
England midfielder Jude Bellingham occupies third place with a 17 percent probability. The Real Madrid star has impressed throughout the tournament and could strengthen his Ballon d’Or credentials if England progresses to the final.
Completing the top four is England captain Harry Kane, who has scored six goals at the World Cup and currently holds a five percent chance of winning the Ballon d’Or. Kane’s hopes could rise significantly if he leads the Three Lions to World Cup glory.
With just two matches separating the remaining teams from the World Cup trophy, standout performances in the semi-finals and final could ultimately determine who is crowned the world’s best player in 2026.
