With Muhammadu Buhari now buried in Daura and his political shadow finally laid to rest, the All Progressives Congress (APC) begins a new chapter—this time without the man whose northern clout delivered 12 million votes consistently across five presidential elections. The vacuum is real, and the 2027 general elections now hang on an unsteady balance.
President Bola Tinubu, who succeeded Buhari in 2023, must now navigate a treacherous political climate where old alliances are cracking, new coalitions are gaining strength, and the North, once solidly APC, is showing signs of ideological drift. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as a surprise vessel for political realignment—absorbing influential figures like Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, Peter Obi, and Nasir El-Rufai, all of whom have pledged to end APC’s dominance.
Analysts say Buhari’s cult-like following in the North made APC electable and his death could shatter that regional bloc. Salihu Lukman, a former APC chieftain now with the ADC, admitted that many politicians previously relied on Buhari’s endorsement to secure electoral wins. “Now that he’s gone, we must go back to grassroots politics and meet citizens with humility,” he said on Channels TV’s Politics Today.
Wahab Owokoniran, Pro-Chancellor of the Federal University of Transportation and a staunch APC insider, admitted during Buhari’s funeral coverage that his absence leaves a political hole. However, he expressed confidence in Tinubu’s ability to consolidate power, calling him “a master strategist who has been building bridges for nearly four decades.” Still, cracks are visible, and many believe the APC may not hold its northern fort without its original standard-bearer.
Public Affairs analyst Nduka Odo argues that Tinubu’s team must find a way to mythologize Buhari posthumously or risk losing Buhari’s massive base. “Northern politics is deeply loyalty-driven,” he said. “If they fail to project Buhari as the party’s spiritual leader even in death, then the Buharists may drift to wherever El-Rufai, Atiku, or Obi go.”
Adding to the storm, rumors are swirling that Vice President Kashim Shettima is being sidelined and may not return as Tinubu’s running mate in 2027—a move that has sparked fierce resistance from the Northeast bloc. The internal rift was exposed at the APC’s zonal meeting in Bauchi where delegates warned Tinubu not to tamper with the ticket. Shettima’s CPC roots tie him to Buhari’s legacy, and any break in that link could cost APC dearly.
Many observers point out that beyond strategy, APC’s real test is managing hunger and disillusionment. Buhari’s last term was marked by soaring inflation, food insecurity, and currency crashes that left millions impoverished. Tinubu’s economic reforms, though bold, have multiplied that suffering. This, they say, could explain the unsettling videos of celebration that emerged from parts of the North after Buhari’s death—proof that even former loyalists may be fed up with APC’s legacy.
