President Bola Tinubu’s Economic Management Team (EMT) is preparing for a high-level review of the 2025 budget after fresh tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump rattled global markets, crushed stock indexes, and triggered a fresh wave of economic uncertainty. Finance Minister Wale Edun confirmed the team would assess possible scenarios and policy responses as Nigeria braces for ripple effects, particularly from a sharp drop in global oil prices.
Naira depreciation accelerated this week, falling to ₦1,629/$ at the official Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) and ₦1,565/$ in the parallel market as demand pressure surged. Despite a $197.7 million injection by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) last Friday, the naira lost 1.8% in value within 24 hours. Traders at NAFEM recorded highs of ₦1,655/$ on April 7, exposing the market’s vulnerability to global volatility.
Trump’s tariff strategy, announced on April 2, imposed duties ranging from 10% to 65% on multiple nations, with Nigeria facing a 14% levy on exports to the U.S. Although oil and mineral exports were exempted, Nigeria’s dependency on global oil prices for revenue remains a critical risk. Brent crude plunged to $61 per barrel on April 7, its lowest in 17 months, raising alarm bells in Abuja as revenue projections are threatened.
Minister Edun, speaking at the MOFI Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, clarified that while the budget hasn’t been officially altered, the EMT is reviewing non-debt financing options, expenditure prioritization, and fiscal reforms. “There’s enormous uncertainty globally. The announcement of tariffs could result in delayed or reversed policies, and we must prepare for all outcomes,” he said.
Nigeria recorded a trade surplus with the U.S. from 2022 to 2024, with exports rising from ₦1.8 trillion in 2022 to ₦5.5 trillion in 2024, 92% of which was crude oil and minerals. While Trump’s tariffs might have limited direct impact on oil, the broader commodity slump poses a bigger threat to Nigeria’s foreign exchange and revenue targets, with experts warning of recessionary consequences if oil prices remain low.
Stock markets around the globe experienced a meltdown on April 7, with the S&P 500 registering its worst three-day drop since the COVID-19 pandemic, falling over 10%. China responded with its own wave of tariffs, escalating trade tensions. Trump threatened further penalties against Beijing, including a 50% tariff increase effective April 9 if retaliatory measures aren’t withdrawn.
At the same MOFI event, World Bank’s outgoing Nigeria Director, Ndiaye Diop, called for urgent transparency in the financial reporting of state-owned enterprises, warning that “Nigeria’s ability to weather the storm depends not just on revenue, but on structural reforms and solid governance.” Meanwhile, Wall Street’s “fear index” soared above 60, a panic threshold not seen since March 2020, as global investors brace for continued shocks.
