China’s growing economic grip on Nigeria came under the spotlight again as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) touted the benefits of its renewed currency swap agreement with China while experts at a high-level Lagos meeting raised alarm over potential long-term economic vulnerabilities. The deal, originally signed in April 2018 and extended in December 2024, now covers a three-year window allowing for ₦720 billion worth of naira to be exchanged with 15 billion yuan, directly bypassing the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade.
At the Maritime Reporters’ Association of Nigeria (MARAN) policy breakfast held on April 15, 2025, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso, represented by Anthony Ogufere, revealed that over 35% of Nigeria’s imports now come from China, pushing annual trade volume to $11.58 billion by December 2024. He described the currency swap as a lifeline for the country’s foreign reserves, asserting that it reduces dollar demand, slashes transaction costs, and enhances port clearance speed, especially at facilities like the Chinese-backed Lekki Deep Sea Port.
The maritime sector is expected to gain the most from the deal, as trade with China heavily depends on shipping. CBN’s emphasis on direct naira-yuan transactions is projected to ease forex constraints at Nigerian ports and attract more Chinese-backed logistics infrastructure. Stakeholders, however, questioned why the yuan-based model has not gained wider traction in Nigeria, despite its potential to unlock trade value.
Critics at the forum, including Martins Olajide of the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership, warned that the deal could become a short-term bandage for a deep economic fracture. He cautioned that Nigeria’s over-reliance on Chinese imports and limited local production makes the currency swap a double-edged sword. “This is not a de-dollarization strategy; this is swapization. Without local manufacturing and export growth, we’re just switching economic masters,” Olajide argued.
Trade analysts have flagged a persistent deficit in the Nigeria-China trade relationship. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show Nigeria imported goods worth ₦5.27 trillion from China in 2024, while exports lagged far behind at less than ₦700 billion. The imbalance, if unchecked, could worsen the naira’s depreciation and leave Nigeria trading value it doesn’t create.
Customs Consultative Council Chair, Aare Akeem Olarenwaju, did not mince words when he blamed the chaotic naira-dollar exchange rate—fluctuating between ₦1,500 and ₦1,700 in Q1 2025—for Nigeria’s spiraling inflation. He urged public enlightenment on currency diversification and encouraged importers to explore the yuan option. “Until we reduce dollar obsession, Nigerians will keep paying the price in the market,” he said.
MARAN President Godfrey Bivbere called for deeper scrutiny of China’s rising footprint in Nigeria’s economy. He urged policymakers to move beyond policy headlines and consider the structural imbalance in trade agreements. “This isn’t just about ports or currency—it’s about the future of Nigeria’s economic sovereignty. We need informed trade policies that support local production and build resilience, not dependence,” he said.
