Nigeria’s poverty crisis has deepened sharply, with the poverty rate rising to 63 per cent in 2025 even as inflation continues to ease, according to a new World Bank assessment that exposes a widening gap between economic indicators and household welfare.
The findings were published in the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update released in Abuja, titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today: The Case for Early Childhood Development.” The report highlights that macroeconomic improvements are yet to translate into better living conditions for millions of Nigerians.
According to the data, poverty levels have climbed steadily over three years from 56 per cent in 2023 to 61 per cent in 2024, before reaching 63 per cent in 2025. This represents about 140 million people living below the poverty line.
The report shows a clear disconnect between falling inflation and worsening living standards, noting that price relief has not been strong enough to restore household purchasing power.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows headline inflation dropped from 34.80 per cent in December 2024 to 15.15 per cent in December 2025. Food inflation also eased significantly from 39.84 per cent to 10.84 per cent within the same period.
Despite this slowdown, the World Bank warned that inflation remains high enough to continue eroding real incomes, especially for households already weakened by earlier price shocks.
“Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still-elevated inflation, and poverty has yet to begin declining,” the report stated.
The bank also pointed to external pressures, including global energy disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed up food, fuel, and transport costs in developing economies like Nigeria.
Beyond inflation, the report flagged structural weaknesses in the economy. It noted that growth has been concentrated in services and industry, while agriculture which employs a large share of the poor continues to lag behind.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projected a gradual decline in poverty from 2026, with levels expected to fall to about 59 per cent by 2028, supported by easing inflation and modest economic recovery.
However, it warned that progress will remain slow due to weak job creation, low agricultural productivity, and rising inequality across income groups.
The report also linked poverty to long-term human capital challenges, noting that poorer households continue to suffer worse outcomes in health, nutrition, and early childhood development.
Speaking at the report’s launch, World Bank Lead Economist for Nigeria, Fiseha Haile, said inflation control alone is not enough to reduce poverty without inclusive growth that creates jobs and raises incomes.
He also stressed that early childhood development remains critical to breaking Nigeria’s long-term poverty cycle and improving productivity in the future workforce.
