El Niño Could Cost Global Economy $11 Trillion, IFAD Warns

The global economy could lose as much as $11 trillion due to the effects of El Niño, with the climate phenomenon threatening food security, agricultural production and public health, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has warned.

The warning was contained in a new report titled Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile, released during the ongoing COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, in collaboration with the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.

The report identified El Niño as one of several overlapping climate and economic shocks placing increasing pressure on small-scale food producers and rural economies.

It also highlighted how global energy and fertiliser price shocks in 2026 had spread across food systems within a single planting season, increasing expenses associated with agricultural production, processing, transportation and distribution.

According to IFAD, the impact of these pressures has been particularly severe on small-scale farmers, who produce approximately one-third of the world’s food.

The organisation warned that the growing frequency and interaction of climate-related and economic disruptions made it necessary to strengthen resilience across rural economies rather than rely on isolated interventions.

It recommended coordinated investments to improve farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, modern technology, markets and financial services, including credit facilities and weather insurance.

IFAD President Alvaro Lario said the organisation’s investment experience showed that farmers were better positioned to withstand economic and climate shocks when different support measures were implemented together.

He disclosed that farmers’ incomes increased by more than 40 per cent in areas where three key intervention areas were addressed together, while technology adoption rose by 75 per cent.

The report also found that combining such interventions could significantly reduce farmers’ losses when climate disruptions and price shocks occur simultaneously.

Türkiye’s Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Ibrahim Yumakli, stressed the importance of preparing farmers before climate-related emergencies occur.

He said farmers’ ability to withstand disruptions depended on reliable access to water, affordable agricultural inputs, financing, insurance and markets.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that El Niño could worsen heat-related illnesses, disease outbreaks and air pollution into 2027.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo gave the warning during a COP31 briefing in Antalya, explaining that above-average temperatures could create health risks beyond direct exposure to extreme heat.

She said the organisation was working with the World Health Organisation to strengthen communication about weather-related health threats and improve public preparedness.

Saulo also cited preliminary estimates indicating that heatwaves, drought and wildfires had been linked to more than 30,000 excess deaths in Europe.

She further highlighted preparations in South America, including plans to establish emergency shelters ahead of potential flooding.

The warnings from IFAD and the WMO underscore the interconnected risks posed by climate change, with disruptions potentially affecting agricultural livelihoods, food prices, economic stability and human health.